The 86th Academy Awards: My Oscar Predictions

So, without further adieu, here are my predictions for tonight’s awards:

Personally, I think Her is the best original screenplay of the lot (caveat:  I haven’t seen all of these).  It’s not every day that we get a truly exceptional treatment of a cliche science fiction, particularly when that treatment is smart, compelling, and “real.”  But I also realize that American Hustle and Dallas Buyers Club are favorites here.  I suspect the folks who pick the winners will take a safer route and go with American Hustle rather than the sometimes deliberately awkward Her.

The above is a completely soft prediction.  I have no idea how to read the Oscars in this category, so what I think will win and what I’d like to win will probably look like alien monkeys to those who have some idea what to expect.  Regardless, of the films on this list, the ones I enjoyed the most were the two I picked, though the better of the two is probably 12 Years a Slave only because I think the Captain Phillips adaptation basically discards the source material in favor of a story that makes sense (you can read my review of the novel here).  But I think it’s possible The Wolf of Wall Street or Philomena could take it in the end.  I just have no idea what to think…

Honestly, Gravity is the only film on this list that deserves to win.  Iron Man 3 had solid visuals, but Gravity is by far the superior film in terms of its treatment of its subject matter.  As for the others:  I refused to see The Lone Ranger (cause redface); I thought The Hobbit was a CG masturbation festival a la George Lucas in the prequel trilogy (the best scenes involve the dragon, which is bloody gorgeous, but so much of this particular franchise is just…too much); and I thought Star Trek Into Darkness was decent enough, but still a tad short of the mark.  I’ll be shocked if I’m wrong on this category.

Curious parties might want to check out these Shoot the WISB segments on Gravity and Star Trek Into Darkness.  My review of Iron Man 3 can be found here.

Caveat:  I have not seen Inside Llewyn Davis or Lone Survivor, but of the three I have seen, the one that once again takes all the top marks is Gravity.  Not much else to say here (well, except that Smaug was pretty much the best part of The Hobbit; he should have his own movie — a sitcom with Bilbo Baggins as the sidekick called Welcome Back Smaug).

Gravity again.  Maybe The Hobbit.  But it will be Gravity, I suspect.

I have no idea.  I have seen none of these, so I’m going to pick one at random based on whether I think the title sounds interesting.

I have seen none of these either, so I’m just going to have to throw a random choice in…again.

It’ll probably go to American Hustle, though I suppose The Great Gatsby deserves a little love, too.  The rest are good in terms of the set design, but I suspect their minimalism or association with genre or some other stupid reason will get them knocked off.

Honestly, I’m shocked that “Oblivion” by Susanne Sundfør isn’t on here.  I’m also shocked that Oblivion is nowhere to be found on the list.  If you ask me, it should have been on the lists for effects or something.  At least once.  Come on…

In any case, I’ll just pick the one from Frozen, because that’s probably what will win.

M83’s soundtrack for Oblivion isn’t on this list either.  Dumb.

In any case, I have no idea here.  None of these soundtracks stood out to me, so I’ll just pick one at random.

The fact that Jackass is on this list makes me laugh.  That it could actually win also makes me giddy with joy.  But we all know it’s going to go to Dallas Buyers Club.

I haven’t seen any of these.  However, I suspect the rather left-leaning-ness of Hollywood will put Omar in the winner’s slot.  Either that or The Missing Picture.  Or I’ll be completely wrong and you all can mock me for it later.

Gravity pretty much deserves to win all of the technical awards.  It is easily one of the most ambitious films of the year in terms of film style and form.

No idea.  Random choice.

I think it comes down to The Act of Killing and Dirty Wars.  I’m picking the latter just because of the political climate and Oscar history.

This is another one of those categories that could go to The Great Gatsby, but which is likely to go to something else entirely.  In this case, I’m picking American Hustle for no reason other than “yeah, it’ll probably win a lot of things.”

Do I need to explain this?  No?  Good.

Honestly, I think Frozen is going to take it just on the strength of its presence in the public discourse.  That’s all I have to say on this because I was mostly disappointed by animated films this year…

Lupita Nyong’o was absolutely brilliant, and since this is one of her first performances, I desperately want her to win.  That said, I know Lawrence is the favorite here.

I’m torn on this one.  Part of me really wants Abdi to take it, even though I know his performance was not nearly as strong as many of the others.  But a part of me also thinks Fassbender’s portrayal of a corrupt plantation master was by far one of his best performances.  And then there’s the part of me that thinks Cooper or Hill will snatch the award because they’re Cooper and Hill and loved.  In other words, my vote is crazy confused.

I don’t even know.  I have a fond spot for pretty much all of these women, so I’m taking a shot in the dark on this one…

There is only one choice here.  Only one.  If they do not give it to Ejiofor, I will forever mock the Oscars for being the most irrelevant awards in the history of awards.  He was amazing.  That is all.

I loved Gravity and understand that most of these are great films in and of themselves.  However, Steve McQueen deserves it here.  12 Years a Slave was brilliant in its direction.  Visceral.  Real.  Minimal.  Powerful.  McQueen not only deserves it, but I think he’ll win.  Otherwise, I have no idea about the world anymore…

I loved most of these films.  I really did.  But I consider 12 Years a Slave to be one of the top 10 films released since 2000, and easily one of the top 100 films of all time.  I believe that is self-evident.  It must win in this category because it is the only logical choice.  It…must…win.

And that’s that…