The 86th Academy Awards: My Oscar Predictions
They’re happening tonight. Some of us will be watching (me). Some of us will have expectations and hopes and dreams (me). Some of us will probably be very disappointed (me). Post-Awards Tally (I’m live updating this post): 11/24 So, without further adieu, here are my predictions for tonight’s awards: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY “American Hustle,” written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell (the winner) “Blue Jasmine,” written by Woody Allen “Dallas Buyers Club,” written by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack WON “Her,” written by Spike Jonze (the one I want to win) “Nebraska,” written by Bob Nelson Personally, I think Her is the best original screenplay of the lot (caveat: I haven’t seen all of these). It’s not every day that we get a truly exceptional treatment of a cliche science fiction, particularly when that treatment is smart, compelling, and “real.” But I also realize that American Hustle and Dallas Buyers Club are favorites here. I suspect the folks who pick the winners will take a safer route and go with American Hustle rather than the sometimes deliberately awkward Her. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY “Before Midnight,” written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke “Captain Phillips,” screenplay by Billy Ray (the winner) “Philomena,” screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope WON “12 Years a Slave,” screenplay by John Ridley (the one I’d like to win) “The Wolf of Wall Street,” screenplay by Terence Winter The above is a completely soft prediction. I have no idea how to read the Oscars in this category, so what I think will win and what I’d like to win will probably look like alien monkeys to those who have some idea what to expect. Regardless, of the films on this list, the ones I enjoyed the most were the two I picked, though the better of the two is probably 12 Years a Slave only because I think the Captain Phillips adaptation basically discards the source material in favor of a story that makes sense (you can read my review of the novel here). But I think it’s possible The Wolf of Wall Street or Philomena could take it in the end. I just have no idea what to think… BEST VISUAL EFFECTS WON “Gravity,” Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould (the winner; the one I want to win) “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds “Iron Man 3,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick “The Lone Ranger,” Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier “Star Trek Into Darkness,” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton Honestly, Gravity is the only film on this list that deserves to win. Iron Man 3 had solid visuals, but Gravity is by far the superior film in terms of its treatment of its subject matter. As for the others: I refused to see The Lone Ranger (cause redface); I thought The Hobbit was a CG masturbation festival a la George Lucas in the prequel trilogy (the best scenes involve the dragon, which is bloody gorgeous, but so much of this particular franchise is just…too much); and I thought Star Trek Into Darkness was decent enough, but still a tad short of the mark. I’ll be shocked if I’m wrong on this category. Curious parties might want to check out these Shoot the WISB segments on Gravity and Star Trek Into Darkness. My review of Iron Man 3 can be found here. BEST SOUND MIXING “Captain Phillips,” Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro WON “Gravity,” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro (the winner; the one I want to win) “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson “Inside Llewyn Davis,” Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland “Lone Survivor,” Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow Caveat: I have not seen Inside Llewyn Davis or Lone Survivor, but of the three I have seen, the one that once again takes all the top marks is Gravity. Not much else to say here (well, except that Smaug was pretty much the best part of The Hobbit; he should have his own movie — a sitcom with Bilbo Baggins as the sidekick called Welcome Back Smaug). BEST SOUND EDITING “All Is Lost,” Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns “Captain Phillips,” Oliver Tarney WON “Gravity,” Glenn Freemantle (the winner; the one I want to win) “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Brent Burge “Lone Survivor,” Wylie Stateman Gravity again. Maybe The Hobbit. But it will be Gravity, I suspect. BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM “Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)” “Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)” WON “Helium” “Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)” “The Voorman Problem” I have no idea. I have seen none of these, so I’m going to pick one at random based on whether I think the title sounds interesting. BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM “Feral” “Get a Horse!” WON “Mr. Hublot” (the winner) “Possessions” “Room on the Broom” I have seen none of these either, so I’m just going to have to throw a random choice in…again. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN “American Hustle,” Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler (the winner) “Gravity,” Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard (the one I want to win) WON “The Great Gatsby,” Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn “Her,” Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena “12 Years a Slave,” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker It’ll probably go to American Hustle, though I suppose The Great Gatsby deserves a little love, too. The rest are good in terms of the set design, but I suspect their minimalism or association with genre or some other stupid reason will get them knocked off. BEST ORIGINAL SONG “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2” WON “Let It Go” from “Frozen” (the winner) “The Moon Song” from “Her” (the one I want